Gross domestic product (GDP) Gross domestic product (GDP) is the standard measure of the value added created through the production of goods and services in a country during a · Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of percent in the first quarter of , according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of is percent on September 15, down from percent on September 9. After 26 rows · · Date Time; U.S. International Transactions, 2nd Quarter GDP from Services CAD Million: Jun GDP from Public Administration CAD Million: Jun GDP from Mining ... read more
The smaller decrease in the second quarter, compared to the first quarter, primarily reflected an upturn in exports and a smaller decrease in federal government spending. Profits increased 6. A comprehensive measure of U. economic activity. GDP measures the value of the final goods and services produced in the United States without double counting the intermediate goods and services used up to produce them. Changes in GDP are the most popular indicator of the nation's overall economic health.
Home BEA Data GDP Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product. Gross Domestic Product Second Estimate and Corporate Profits Preliminary , Second Quarter Q2 2nd. Q1 3rd. Current Release. Full Year GDP Growth GDP GDP Annual Growth Rate GDP Constant Prices GDP from Agriculture GDP from Construction GDP from Manufacturing GDP from Mining GDP from Public Administration GDP from Services GDP from Transport GDP from Utilities GDP Growth Annualized GDP Growth Rate GDP per Capita GDP per Capita PPP Gross Fixed Capital Formation Gross National Product Monthly GDP MoM.
ADP Employment Change Average Hourly Earnings Employed Persons Employment Change Employment Rate Full Time Employment Job Vacancies Labor Force Participation Rate Labour Costs Minimum Wages Non Farm Payrolls Part Time Employment Population Productivity Retirement Age Men Retirement Age Women Unemployed Persons Unemployment Rate Wage Growth Wages Wages in Manufacturing Youth Unemployment Rate. Commodity Prices YoY Consumer Price Index CPI Core Consumer Prices Core Inflation Rate CPI Housing Utilities CPI Median CPI Transportation CPI Trimmed-Mean Export Prices Food Inflation GDP Deflator Import Prices Inflation Expectations Inflation Rate Inflation Rate MoM Producer Price Inflation MoM Producer Prices Producer Prices Change Wholesale Prices.
Coronavirus Cases Coronavirus Deaths Coronavirus Vaccination Rate Coronavirus Vaccination Total Hospital Beds Hospitals Medical Doctors Nurses. Banks Balance Sheet Central Bank Balance Sheet Deposit Interest Rate Foreign Exchange Reserves Foreign Stock Investment Interbank Rate Interest Rate Investment in Foreign Securities Loans to Private Sector Money Supply M0 Money Supply M1 Money Supply M2 Money Supply M3 Private Debt to GDP.
Balance of Trade Capital Flows Crude Oil Production Current Account Current Account to GDP Exports Exports by Category Exports by Country External Debt Foreign Direct Investment Gold Reserves Imports Imports by Category Imports by Country Oil Exports Terms of Trade Terrorism Index Tourist Arrivals Weapons Sales.
Asylum Applications Credit Rating Fiscal Expenditure Government Budget Government Budget Value Government Debt Government Debt to GDP Government Revenues Government Spending Holidays Military Expenditure. Bankruptcies Business Climate Indicator Business Confidence Capacity Utilization Car Registrations Changes in Inventories Competitiveness Index Competitiveness Rank Corporate Profits Corruption Index Corruption Rank Crude Oil Rigs Ease of Doing Business Industrial Production Industrial Production Mom Internet Speed IP Addresses Manufacturing PMI Manufacturing Production Manufacturing Sales Mining Production New Orders Small Business Sentiment Wholesale Sales.
Bank Lending Rate Consumer Confidence Consumer Credit Consumer Spending Disposable Personal Income Gasoline Prices Households Debt to GDP Households Debt to Income Personal Savings Retail Sales Ex Autos Retail Sales MoM Retail Sales YoY. Building Permits Home Ownership Rate House Price Index MoM House Price Index YoY Housing Index Housing Starts Price to Rent Ratio.
Corporate Tax Rate Personal Income Tax Rate Sales Tax Rate Social Security Rate Social Security Rate For Companies Social Security Rate For Employees. Precipitation Temperature. More Indicators. National Statistics World Bank. We have a plan for your needs. Standard users can export data in a easy to use web interface or using an excel add-in.
API users can feed a custom application. White label accounts can distribute our data. We Are Hiring. Trading Economics welcomes candidates from around the world. Current job openings:. GDP Growth Rate QoQ. GDP Growth Rate. GDP Growth Annualized. GDP Annual Growth Rate. GDP Constant Prices. Gross National Product.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation. GDP from Utilities. GDP from Transport. GDP from Services. GDP from Public Administration. GDP is also equal to the sum of personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, net exports of goods and services, and government consumption expenditures and gross investment. Gross domestic income GDI is the sum of incomes earned and costs incurred in the production of GDP. In national economic accounting, GDP and GDI are conceptually equal.
In practice, GDP and GDI differ because they are constructed using largely independent source data. Gross output is the value of the goods and services produced by the nation's economy. It is principally measured using industry sales or receipts, including sales to final users GDP and sales to other industries intermediate inputs.
Current-dollar estimates are valued in the prices of the period when the transactions occurred—that is, at "market value. Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes.
The gross domestic purchases price index measures the prices of final goods and services purchased by U. The personal consumption expenditure price index measures the prices paid for the goods and services purchased by, or on the behalf of, "persons.
Personal income is the income received by, or on behalf of, all persons from all sources: from participation as laborers in production, from owning a home or business, from the ownership of financial assets, and from government and business in the form of transfers.
It includes income from domestic sources as well as the rest of world. It does not include realized or unrealized capital gains or losses. Disposable personal income is the income available to persons for spending or saving. It is equal to personal income less personal current taxes. Personal outlays is the sum of personal consumption expenditures, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments.
Personal saving is personal income less personal outlays and personal current taxes. The personal saving rate is personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income. Profits from current production , referred to as corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment IVA and capital consumption CCAdj adjustment in the National Income and Product Accounts NIPAs , is a measure of the net income of corporations before deducting income taxes that is consistent with the value of goods and services measured in GDP.
The IVA and CCAdj are adjustments that convert inventory withdrawals and depreciation of fixed assets reported on a tax-return, historical-cost basis to the current-cost economic measures used in the national income and product accounts.
Profits for domestic industries reflect profits for all corporations located within the geographic borders of the United States. The rest-of-the-world ROW component of profits is measured as the difference between profits received from ROW and profits paid to ROW.
For more definitions, refer to the Glossary: National Income and Product Accounts. Annual-vs-quarterly rates. Quarterly seasonally adjusted values are expressed at annual rates, unless otherwise specified.
This convention is used for BEA's featured, seasonally adjusted measures to facilitate comparisons with related and historical data. For details, refer to the FAQ " Why does BEA publish estimates at annual rates? Percent changes. Percent changes in quarterly seasonally adjusted series are displayed at annual rates, unless otherwise specified. For details, refer to the FAQ " How is average annual growth calculated? All published percent changes are calculated from unrounded data.
Calendar years and quarters. Unless noted otherwise, annual and quarterly data are presented on a calendar basis. Quantities and prices. Quantities, or "real" volume measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with a specified reference year equal to currently Quantity and price indexes are calculated using a Fisher-chained weighted formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent periods quarters for quarterly data and annuals for annual data.
For details on the calculation of quantity and price indexes, refer to Chapter 4: Estimating Methods in the NIPA Handbook. Chained-dollar values are calculated by multiplying the quantity index by the current dollar value in the reference year and then dividing by Percent changes calculated from real quantity indexes and chained-dollar levels are conceptually the same; any differences are due to rounding.
Chained-dollar values are not additive because the relative weights for a given period differ from those of the reference year. In tables that display chained-dollar values, a "residual" line shows the difference between the sum of detailed chained-dollar series and its corresponding aggregate.
The growth rate of real gross domestic product GDP is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U. Bureau of Economic Analysis. GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed.
Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released.
It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model. Recent forecasts for the GDPNow model are available here. More extensive numerical details—including underlying source data, forecasts, and model parameters—are available as a separate spreadsheet. You can also view an archive of recent commentaries from GDPNow estimates.
Please note that we no longer support the GDPNow app. Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website to continue to get the latest GDP nowcast and more economic data. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth seasonally adjusted annual rate in the third quarter of is 0.
After this week's releases from the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, decreases in the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 1. The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, September Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
In this video economist Pat Higgins, GDPNow's creator, discusses the difference between nowcasting and forecasting. Watch the video. In this Economy Matters podcast, Atlanta Fed policy adviser and economist Pat Higgins, the creator of GDPNow, discusses the tool, how it works, and some of the challenges involved in measuring the economy.
Listen to the podcast. The growth rate of real gross domestic product GDP measured by the U. Bureau of Economic Analysis BEA is a key metric of the pace of economic activity. It is one of the four variables included in the economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Bank presidents for every other Federal Open Market Committee FOMC meeting. As with many economic statistics, GDP estimates are released with a lag whose timing can be important for policymakers.
As stated by economists Jon Faust and Jonathan H. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model also mimics the methods used by the BEA to estimate real GDP growth. The GDPNow forecast is constructed by aggregating statistical model forecasts of 13 subcomponents that comprise GDP. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model fills these three voids. Census Bureau, U.
Bureau of Labor Statistics, and other sources. Miller and Daniel M. Whenever the monthly source data is not available, the missing values are forecasted using econometric techniques similar to those described in papers by James H.
Stock and Mark W. Watson and Domenico Giannone, Lucrezia Reichlin, and David Small. A detailed description of the data sources and methods used in the GDPNow model is provided in an accompanying Atlanta Fed working paper. As more monthly source data becomes available, the GDPNow forecast for a particular quarter evolves and generally becomes more accurate. It is important to emphasize that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast is a model projection not subject to judgmental adjustments.
It is not an official forecast of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, its president, the Federal Reserve System, or the FOMC.
All rights reserved. Permission is granted to reproduce for personal and educational use only. Is GDPNow an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed or the Bank's president? No, it is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed, its president, the Federal Reserve System, or the FOMC. Is any judgment used to adjust the forecasts? Once the GDPNow model begins forecasting GDP growth for a particular quarter, the code will not be adjusted until after the "advance" estimate.
If we improve the model over time, we will roll out changes right after the "advance" estimate so that forecasts for the subsequent quarter use a fixed methodology for their entire evolution. When will nowcasts of GDP growth in a particular quarter begin and end? Except after annual benchmark or comprehensive revisions of GDP typically occurring in late July, GDPNow nowcasts for a quarter generally begin on the weekday after the advance estimate of GDP growth for the previous quarter is released.
The final GDPNow nowcast of real GDP growth in the first quarter of was made on April 26, , and the advance estimate of real GDP growth in the first quarter of was released on April 27, How frequently is the GDPNow forecast updated? The model forecast is updated six or seven times a month on weekdays, with at least one following seven data releases: Manufacturing ISM Report on Business , U.
International Trade in Goods and Services FT , Wholesale Trade , Monthly Retail Trade Report , New Residential Construction , Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers , and Personal Income and Outlays. Other data releases, such as Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization and Existing-Home Sales , are incorporated in the model as well and their impact on the model's forecast will be shown on the next weekday with one of the data releases.
The proprietary forecasts from Blue Chip Economic Indicators and Blue Chip Financial Forecasts shown in the chart are available from Aspen Publishers. How can I access historical forecasts from the GDPNow model? These forecasts are available in this downloadable spreadsheet. See the tab "ReadMe" in the spreadsheet for hyperlinks to the historical forecasts and other data for the model.
In particular, the tab "TrackingDeepArchives" has forecasts for the Q3—Q1 period before the model went live , the tab "TrackingArchives" has forecasts from Q2 through the last quarter for which an advance estimate of GDP has been released by the BEA, and the tab "TrackRecord" has a comparison of the historical GDPNow model forecasts with the actual "advance" real GDP growth estimates from the BEA.
Where can I read about the methods and source data used in the model? A detailed description is given in a working paper describing the model. To summarize, the BEA's NIPA Handbook provides very detailed documentation on both the source data and methods used for estimating the subcomponents of GDP. The late Nobel Prize—winning economist Lawrence Klein pioneered many of the "bridge equation" methods used for making short-run forecasts of GDP growth using this source data; a paper he coauthored with E.
Sojo describes the approach. Kathleen Navin, an economist at Macroeconomic Advisers, provides a bird's-eye view illustrating how to use a bridge equation approach in practice to improve GDP forecasts in this presentation. The econometric techniques used in our GDPNow model were heavily adapted from the GDP nowcasting models described in a Minneapolis Fed Quarterly Review article by Preston J.
Chin and a paper by the Board's David Small and economists Domenico Giannone and Lucrezia Reichlin. Where can I find alternative forecasts of GDP growth? For model forecasts from other Reserve Banks, see the New York Fed Nowcasting Report , the St. Louis Fed Economic News Index: Real GDP Nowcast , the Philadelphia Research Intertemporal Stochastic Model PRISM , and the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's prediction model for GDP growth based on the slope of the yield curve.
Moody's Analytics and Now-Casting. com produce proprietary model short-run GDP forecasts. For survey-based forecasts, see the Philadelphia Fed's quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters, which includes forecasts of real GDP and its major subcomponents.
Neither of these surveys includes forecasts of the subcomponents of GDP. How accurate are the GDPNow forecasts? Are they more accurate than "professional" forecasts? The chart below shows GDPNow's real-time forecasts made just prior to the release of the initial estimate of the annualized growth rate of real GDP along with the initial estimates from the U.
Since we started tracking GDP growth with versions of this model in , the average absolute error of final GDPNow forecasts is 0. The root-mean-squared error of the forecasts is 1. These accuracy measures cover initial estimates for Q3—Q2. Some further analysis of GDPNow's forecast errors is available in macroblog posts located here and here.
We have made some improvements to the model from its earlier versions, and the model forecasts have become more accurate over time the complete track record is here. When back-testing with revised data, the root mean-squared error of the model's out-of sample forecast with the same data coverage that an analyst would have just before the "advance" estimate is 1.
The figure below shows how the forecasts become more accurate as the interval between the date the forecast is made and the forthcoming GDP release date narrows. Overall, these accuracy metrics do not give compelling evidence that the model is more accurate than professional forecasters. The model does appear to fare well compared to other conventional statistical models. How are revisions to data not yet reflected in the latest GDP release handled?
In general, the model does not attempt to anticipate how data releases after the latest GDP report will affect the revisions made in the forthcoming GDP release. The exception is the "change in private inventories" subcomponent, where revisions to the prior quarter's reading affect GDP growth in the current quarter.
Users of the GDPNow forecast should generally use the forecasts of the change in "net exports" and the change in the "change in private inventories," and not forecasts of the levels. Revisions to retail sales are used to anticipate revisions to real monthly expenditures in the " PCE control group " and revisions to housing starts are used to anticipate revisions in the monthly value of private residential construction spending put in place.
Do you share your code? At this point, no. However, the Excel spreadsheet gives the numerical details—including the raw data and model parameters—of how the monthly data map into forecasts of the subcomponents of GDP. What are the differences between GDPNow and the FRBNY Nowcast models?
Why do the two models have different forecasts?
· Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of percent in the first quarter of , according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic This page displays a table with actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, statistics and historical data charts for - Economic Calendar. This calendar provides events for countries GDP from Services CAD Million: Jun GDP from Public Administration CAD Million: Jun GDP from Mining Date and Time Format. DD/MM/YY format is used. Where, DD – the day of the month, MM – the month. YY – the year, E.g. 16/10/20 indicates 16th October Format of OnlineGDB is online IDE with python compiler. Quick and easy way to compile python program online. It supports python3 The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of is percent on September 15, down from percent on September 9. After ... read more
International Trade in Goods and Services, May Interest Rate Decision. GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2st Est Q2. Personal Income and Outlays, October A detailed description is given in a working paper describing the model. All rights reserved. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics".The numerical details—including the raw data and model parameters—translating the monthly data into nowcasts of the subcomponents of GDP in the gdp dates online GDPNow forecast are available in this Excel file see the ReadMe tab, gdp dates online. ECB Tuominen Speech. Miller and Daniel M. December 6. Last published in Publication. Prime Overdraft Rate. Federal Tax Revenues AUG.